What 20 billion dollars can do

WHAT THE GLOBAL FUND CAN DO ACCORDING TO THE VARIOUS SCENARIOS

Overview of return on investment compared with the US$20 billion scenario:


US$20 billion US$17 billion US$13 billion
People on ARVs 7.5 million 1.7 million less 3.1 million less
TB DOTS treatments 6.8 million 1.6 million less 2.9 million less
LLINs (bed nets) 190 million 43 million less 80 million less
OVC support 4.4 million 1 million less 1.9 million less
Women receiving PMTCT services 1.1 million 280,000 less 490,000 less


RESULTS THAT CAN BE FORESEEN WITH US$20 BILLION

An investment of US$20 billion would result in a pronounced increase in services delivered in 2015, compared to 2009 year-end levels:

  • A total of 7.5 million people on ARV therapy, up from 2.5 million at the end of 2009
  • 6.8 million DOTS treatments provided annually, up from 1.4 million in 2009
  • 190 million long-lasting insecticidal nets distributed annually, up from 34 million in 2009
  • 4.4 million orphasn and other vulnerable children provided with support annually, up from 1.4 million in 2009
  • 1.1 million HIV-positive women receiving PMTCT annually, compared to 345,000 in 2009

This would correspond to the Global Fund being responsible for:

  • 34% of Univeral Access Targets for ARV therapy treatment;
  • the provision of 72% of global long-lasting insecticidal nets needed;
  • the provision of 75% of global PMTCT needs; and
  • the support for 23 – 29% of children orphaned by AIDS (or 3% of all orphans)

With US$20 billion, ARV therapy services would save an estimated 3 million life-years in 2015 alone; long-lasting insecticidal nets distribution  an estimated 23.5 million life-years; and for PMTCT an estimated 4.3 million life-years.  For long-lasting insecticidal nets and PMTCT, this represents a significant increase in health impact compared to investments of US$17 billion.  As the impact of ARV therapy is assumed to be lagged, a measurable increase over the US$17 billion scenario would be expected in 2016 and 2017 if patients are maintained on treatment.


RESULTS TO BE FORESEEN WITH US$17 BILLION

An investment of U$17 billion would result in a phased increase in services delivered in 2015, compared to 2009, as follows:

  • A total of 5.8 million people on ARV therapy (1.7 million less than with US$20 billion)
  • 5.2 million DOTS treatments provided annually (1.6 million less than with US$20 billion)
  • 147 million long-lasting insecticidal nets distributed annually (43 million less than with US$20 billion)
  • 3.4 million orphans and other vulnerable children provided with support annually (1 million less than with US$20 billion)
  • 820,000 HIV-positive women receiving PMTCT annually (280,000 less than with US$20 billion)

This would correspond to 27 percent of the ARV therapy universal access target; 56 percent of the global long-lasting insecticidal net need; 58 percent of the current global PMTCT need; and support for 18 to 23 percent of children orphaned by AIDS (or 2.3 percent of all orphans).

With US$17 billion, ARV therapy services would save an estimated 3 million life-years in 2015; long-lasting insecticidal net distribution an estimated 21 million life-years and PMTCT an estimated 3.3 million life-years. For long-lasting insecticidal nets and PMTCT, this represents a considerable increase in health impact compared to US$13 billion. For ART, a greater difference to US$13 billion is seen primarily in years 2016 and 2017 if patients are maintained on treatment.


RESULTS TO BE FORESEEN WITH US$13 BILLION

The Global Fund estimates that an investment of US$13 billion would result in the following increases in services delivered in 2015:

  • A total of 4.4 million people on ARV therapy (3.1 million less than with US$20 billion)
  • 3.9 million DOTS treatments provided annually (2.9 million less than with US$20 billion)
  • 110 million long-lasting insecticidal nets distributed annually (80 million less than with US$20 billion)
  • 2.5 million orphans and other vulnerable children provided with support annually (1.9 million less than with US$20 billion)
  • 610,000 HIV-positive women receiving PMTCT annually (490,000 less than with US$20 billion)

This would correspond to 20% of the ARV therapy universal access target, 42% of global long-lasting insecticidal net need, 44% of current global PMTCT need; and support for 13 – 17% of children orphaned by AIDS (or 2% of all orphans).

With US$13 billion, ARV therapy delivered would save an estimated 2.8 million life-years in 2015; long-lasting insecticidal net distribution would save an estimated 16 million life-years and PMTCT an estimated 2.5 million life-years.

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